Disease Risk Assessment Framework
Four-tier risk grade (Endemic, Recurrent, Emerging, Sporadic) for each of 92 tracked diseases, derived from WHO outbreak event quartiles.
Risk Grade Methodology
We assign every tracked disease to one of four risk grades based on the quartile distribution of its historical WHO event count. The grade is relative to the current registry — thresholds shift as data accumulates.
This is a historical-burden signal, not a real-time risk score. A "sporadic" disease can still flare: use the grade alongside the Safety Alerts page for recency.
Endemic
21
> 15 events
Recurrent
24
> 3 events
Emerging
14
> 1 events
Sporadic
32
≤ 1 events
Diseases by Risk Grade
All tracked diseases assigned to their grade. Open any disease for its global spread and clinical profile.
> 15 events
Endemic
> 3 events
Recurrent
> 1 events
Emerging
≤ 1 events
Sporadic
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the "events · countries" numbers mean?
The first number is the total WHO event count for that disease across all time. The second is the number of countries that have reported at least one such event. A high event count concentrated in few countries suggests regional endemicity; a moderate count spread across many countries suggests wider geographic risk.
Does an "Endemic" grade mean I will catch it?
No. It means the disease has sustained historical circulation in the registry. Personal exposure risk depends on travel, vector presence, vaccination status, and local sanitation — factors this page cannot assess.
How often are grades re-computed?
On every page load. Quartile thresholds are derived from the live database, so the grade distribution shifts as new events are ingested.