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Our NFL betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation throughout each week of the season.

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Oct. 18: Cardinals pulls biggest upset of season, add to Rams' struggles

By David Purdum

The Los Angeles Rams won over the betting public in the offseason and kicked off the regular season as the clear-cut Super Bowl favorites. They haven't lived up to that billing so far, suffering a new low Sunday.

The Rams lost to the Arizona Cardinals as 13.5-point home favorites in the biggest upset of the season based on point spread. They are only the second double-digit favorite to lose outright in the past two seasons, joining the Green Bay Packers, who lost to the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 last November as 13.5-point favorites.

Arizona's upset shredded survivor pool entries around the nation.

The Rams were picked by the most contestants in ESPN Survivor contests and in the high-stakes contests Circa Survivor and Circa Grandissimo in Las Vegas. Throw in the Indianapolis Colts' loss to the underdog and previously winless Tennessee Titans, and the Circa contests lost greater than 50% of the remaining entries.

The loss drops the Rams to 2-4 on the season, the same record as the Cardinals. The Rams are the second preseason Super Bowl favorite in the past 20 years to lose four of their first six games, per SportsOddsHistory.com. (The 2015 Seattle Seahawks started 2-4 and went on to lose in the divisional round of the playoffs.)

Los Angeles was favored to win the Super Bowl at 5-1 ahead of Week 1. No other team had Super Bowl odds shorter than 10-1. The Rams were +950 to win the Super Bowl on Sunday night at DraftKings, behind four teams.

More bets were placed and more money was wagered on the Rams to win the Super Bowl than any other team in the offseason at most sportsbooks.

Oct. 11: Who wants to win the NFC East?

By Doug Greenberg

Week 5 was one to forget for the NFC East, to say the least.

It started Thursday night when the Dallas Cowboys lost outright to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after closing as 8.5-point favorites, tied with four other games as the biggest upset of the season, according to DraftKings odds.

Not only were the Cowboys heavily backed on the spread and in moneyline parlays at multiple sportsbooks, they were also the most popular pick in both ESPN Survivor (40% of the remaining field) and the $1,000-per-entry Circa Survivor (2,554 entries, 42.8% of the remaining field). It's the third time in the season's first five weeks that ESPN Survivor's most popular pick lost.

But the misery didn't end there for the division. The Philadelphia Eagles led off the day in London by seemingly notching a winning field goal with eight seconds left against the Jacksonville Jaguars, giving them a 99.5% chance to win the game, per ESPN Analytics.

Jacksonville returned the ensuing kickoff to the Philadelphia 35-yard line with one second left, allowing the Jags to kick a winning field goal as time expired. It was the first game in the Super Bowl era that featured two go-ahead field goals in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter, according to ESPN Research.

Then, there was the most bizarre result of the week, possibly the season. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders played a mistake-ridden game into an overtime where neither team scored, including in the matchup's final moments when the Commanders somehow ran out the clock while in field goal range.

"In the closing minutes and overtime, the live moneyline market was in complete chaos," Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook head of football, told ESPN via email. "Every big play looked like it might decide the game and the book's fate, only for the final whistle to leave everyone staring at the screen wondering what had just happened. It was 90-plus minutes of drama, countless swings in perceived win probability, and in the end, nobody got the outcome they were expecting."

That's right: None of the NFC East teams recorded a win in Week 5 ... despite two of the teams playing each other.

Going into "Thursday Night Football," the Cowboys had been the +105 favorites to win the division and immediately dropped to +164 following their upset loss, tying them with the Eagles. After Week 5, Philadelphia is now the slight favorite for the division at +170 -- the longest odds for any division favorite in the league. Next comes Dallas at +180, followed by current division leader New York at +320 and Washington at +750. All of the teams in the NFC East show underdog plus-odds to make the playoffs ... even though one of them has to.

The Eagles had actually been a top-six favorite for the Super Bowl at 17-1 going into the season, but that number has lengthened to 40-1. The Cowboys are now the Super Bowl favorite among NFC East teams at 30-1 after coming into the season at 25-1.

The whole situation is made all the more disorienting by the fact that bettors had much higher expectations for this division going into the season. At BetMGM, Dallas is the biggest liability for the NFC championship, having attracted a $10,000 wager at 16-1 odds to win $160,000.

The Giants provoked a $5,000 wager to win the Super Bowl at 66-1 odds, creating a potential payout of $330,000. New York is also the largest liability to win the NFC East at both BetMGM and DraftKings, with both books also reporting some action for the division on Dallas.

"The Eagles/Commanders right now are the best-case scenario for the book with the Giants/Cowboys being the best-case scenario for the bettors," Feazel said, "but based on today's events we are not sure that any of these teams would like to win the division."

Sept. 28: Betting buzz: 8.5 the magic number for underdogs

By Doug Greenberg and David Purdum

Big underdogs are having a historic start to the 2026 NFL season, and it's all revolving around one number.

On Sunday, the Washington Commanders upset the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks after coming into the matchup as 8.5-point underdogs. In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints defeated the Baltimore Ravens outright as 8.5-point underdogs and the Cleveland Browns beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as underdogs by the same number. And in Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals pulled off the first big upset of the season when they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers ... again, as 8.5-point underdogs.

The four straight-up wins by underdogs of eight points or greater is the most through three weeks of a season since 1978 when five teams accomplished the feat, according to ESPN Research.

Only one 8.5-point favorite has survived so far: the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won and covered against the Browns in Week 1. Additionally, the only two favorites of greater than 8.5 -- the San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs (-10) in Week 3 -- also won and covered, both against the Miami Dolphins.

Because public bettors generally like to back big favorites -- via straight spread wagers, teasers or money-line parlays -- the underdog wins have been a boon to sportsbooks. At DraftKings, Washington's outright win against Seattle during Week 3 was "a good outcome for the book" after the Seahawks became the sportsbook's fourth-most-backed team of the day, pushing the line up from 6.5 earlier in the week, according to a sportsbook representative.

"The Commanders' win was the most impactful result for the book," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN over email. "The news throughout the week created a perfect storm for bettors to focus on Seattle. With Sam Darnold returning and Marcus Mariota starting for Washington, the Seahawks became the perceived 'free square' in parlays."

Through "Sunday Night Football," underdogs are 7-8 outright in Week 3. If the Chicago Bears win Monday night, it will be the first time that underdogs have gone .500 or better in a week since Week 5 of 2025, according to ESPN Research based on DraftKings odds.

For the third time in as many weeks this NFL season, the big underdog win also meant carnage for survivor pools: Seattle was the third-most selected team in ESPN Survivor with 11% of the picks, and the second-most selected in Circa Survivor at 12.9%.

Lawrence's costly kneel

With nearly nine minutes remaining in the Jacksonville Jaguars' blowout win over the New England Patriots, quarterback Trevor Lawrence pulled a bizarre move when he took a knee at the 1-yard line, allowing running back Bhayshul Tuten to score on the next play. Lawrence's kneel cost his fantasy owners and benefited Tuten's, but some bettors in Florida really paid the price.

At Hard Rock Sportsbook, Lawrence's odds to score a touchdown settled at +275 before the game and several bettors included him in long-shot parlays. One such parlay saw the first seven legs hit, and missed out on Lawrence getting in the endzone as the eighth and final leg. The $10 ticket would have paid out $11,323.72.

Another saw a $2,000 five-leg parlay hit on only four of its legs, including Lawrence over 16.5 rushing yards, but missed on Lawrence anytime touchdown, denying a $33,339.20 payday. Ouch.

Chi-Town quarterback shuffle

Six points -- that's how much the betting market believes the difference between Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams and third-string QB Case Keenum, who is expected to start when the Philadelphia Eagles visit Soldier Field on Monday.

The Bears were 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles in the early lines posted last week, before Williams went down with a leg injury in Week 2's game against the Minnesota Vikings.

The line reopened at Eagles -4.5 on Monday, dropped to -3 during the week as hopes of Williams being able to return surfaced. But Williams was ruled out Sunday and Keenum was named the expected starter. The line settled back at -4.5 on Sunday.

Sportsbooks reported around 75% of the bets and money wagered on the Monday night game had been on the favored Eagles.