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A paper prepared by a lobbyist for the Australian Gas Infrastructure Group (AGIG) and shared with ministers has warned annual household gas bills could increase by $100 unless the ban is overturned, without providing evidence to support that claim.
From 1 January, all new homes and commercial buildings cannot be connected to the gas network and must instead run on electricity. The government expects this could save households $880 a year – or $1,820 once solar panels are installed.
AGIG – which is owned by a Hong-Kong led consortium – operates and owns major natural gas distribution networks and pipelines in Victoria. The company’s business model will be hit when new homes are not connected to these networks.
The document obtained by Guardian Australia was written by AGIG’s lobbyist, Ken McAlpine, and provides detailed advice on how regulation should be changed, how the ban could be reversed before the election, and how it should be announced to the media.
The document also provides unsolicited political advice claiming a change would neutralise a “key opposition attack line”. The Coalition has pledged to repeal the ban. McAlpine also cites unnamed qualitative research to claim “voters hate the ban”.
The document cites modelling that suggests the government’s ban would lead to a network cost increase of 20% to 40% “primarily due to demand and customer reductions” associated with the ban.
The document claims small businesses and industrial customers could see gas price increases of more than $100 a year.
“AGIG is currently discussing these price increases with customer representatives as part of their regulator price reset process, but these numbers will likely become public by mid-September,” the document says.
The numbers have not yet been made public.
Tony Wood, an energy and climate change senior fellow at the Grattan Institute, said the document was “clearly a scare campaign”.
“I do not understand why there would be any price increases,” Wood said.
In March 2025, AGIG told the state government that network costs would increase for remaining gas customers as more people moved to electric homes.
“We have been warning against that outcome for some time and it should not be allowed,” Wood said. “The consumers who will be ‘forced’ to go electric rather than have a gas connection will be financially better off.”
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An AGIG spokesperson said the document was not written by the group but that it reflected its submissions to government and its campaigning on this issue.
Environment Victoria’s chief executive, Jonathan La Nauze, said the letter’s foreshadowing of a price increase – which is set by the independent Australian Energy Regulator and not AGIG – agreed the document was indicative of a “scare campaign”.
“This shows a sophisticated campaign that has considered the political and policy mechanisms,” La Nauze said. “They are very, very focused on getting what they want before caretaker period begins.
“I would absolutely urge and expect Ben Carroll to put the interests of Victorians before the interests of a foreign-owned private gas company.”
When asked about the lobbying document, the Victorian minister for energy and resources, Jaclyn Symes, said the government’s position “has not changed”.
“We’ve always said gas is part of our energy transition – but the reality is legacy supplies from Victoria’s Bass Strait are dwindling and prices are going up,” Symes said.
Francis Vierboom, chief executive officer of the non-profit Rewiring Australia, said AGIG was “trying to do the department’s homework for them”.
“We need to make sure that the government is taking its own advice and following the sensible and nation-leading policies they have already announced,” Vierboom said.
The leader of the Victorian Greens, Ellen Sandell, said “the gas lobby has become so brazen it’s literally written the government a step-by-step playbook for watering down the rules, right down to the media release it wants Labor to send”. %!s(
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